Did a 1996 Ad Predict Today’s Financial Reality Accurately?

November 25, 2024

In 1996, an advertising campaign created by Todd Heyman and Bill Bonomo at the advertising agency Ogilvy for the financial firm TIAA-CREF predicted future prices with such eerie accuracy that it has become a topic of renewed interest on social media platforms. The campaign projected that thirty years into the future, a burger and fries would run you $16, a vacation would set you back $12,500, and a basic car would cost $65,000. These projections were used to highlight the critical need for retirement planning and financial readiness.

Heyman and Bonomo took an unconventional approach to capture the attention of their target audience. They understood that many individuals found the concept of retirement planning daunting and were inclined to procrastinate, which could have severe financial consequences in the long run. Therefore, instead of simply promoting TIAA-CREF’s services, they aimed to drive home the urgent need for action to secure one’s financial future.

To convey this message effectively, they decided to use the concept of future inflation to depict highly exaggerated costs, calculating average inflation rates and projecting these figures thirty years ahead. The resulting predictions, such as a $16 burger, were designed to provoke an emotional reaction and engage the audience on both a rational and emotional level. This approach was termed the “emotional hard sell,” blending logical reasoning with emotional appeal.

Some of the specific numbers in the ad turned out to be off the mark—the average cost of a new car today is $48,000, not $65,000—but many of the predictions are surprisingly plausible, like the $16 burger. Because of this near-accuracy, the ad continues to attract attention on social media. Posts on platforms like Reddit and LinkedIn often see the ad go viral, generating significant media coverage and public discussion.

Heyman and Bonomo, now working as freelance creative directors, view the long-lasting impact and renewed relevance of their campaign as validation of their bold strategy. Heyman remarks that had they opted for a more conventional approach, their ad would likely have faded into obscurity. Instead, their innovative and provocative method produced an advertisement that still resonates strongly and influences people decades later.

This case study exemplifies the power of advertising rooted in deep audience understanding and compelling message delivery. It showcases the effectiveness of combining rational data with emotional incentives to prompt action among target audiences. The campaign’s predictions and strategic conception continue to inspire conversations about proactive financial planning, standing as a testament to the enduring power of well-researched and creatively executed advertising campaigns.

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